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Beyond Remittances: Redefining Kerala’s Gulf Dependency in a Shifting Global Economy

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Beyond Remittances: Redefining Kerala’s Gulf Dependency in a Shifting Global Economy Since the oil boom of the 1970s, Kerala’s economic lifeline has been intricately tied to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Migration offered a much-needed escape valve from domestic unemployment, and remittances transformed once-impoverished rural economies into pockets of prosperity. Over the decades, the Gulf dream became not just an economic strategy but a social aspiration embedded deep in the Malayali psyche. However, as of 2025, the landscape is shifting. Technological changes, aggressive labour nationalization policies in the Gulf, and global economic uncertainties are shaking the foundations of Kerala’s Gulf-dependent economic model. This article explores how deeply this dependence is entrenched, the emerging challenges, and the pressing need to pivot towards a more resilient and diversified future. The migration wave from Kerala to the Gulf began during the 1970s oil boom, when cou...
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Skyfall Economics — What the Ahmedabad–London Crash Reveals About India’s Aviation Faultlines

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Skyfall Economics — What the Ahmedabad–London Crash Reveals About India’s Aviation Faultlines A fireball lit up the sky over Meghani Nagar in Ahmedabad just seconds after Air India Flight AI-171, bound for London, took off from Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport. The Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, carrying 230 passengers and 12 crew members, plummeted into a crowded neighborhood and exploded upon impact. The crash killed 241 of the 242 people on board and claimed the lives of 28 more on the ground. For the nation, it was a day of profound grief. For the aviation industry, it was a moment of reckoning. Beyond the human tragedy, the incident poses urgent economic questions about India's fast-growing but increasingly vulnerable aviation sector. The crash didn’t just shake Ahmedabad or London—it rattled the entire framework of air travel in the country, including in Kerala, where aviation is not a luxury but a lifeline. In a country where the domestic aviation market has boomed—c...
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Floods, Fish, and Fiscal Failure: The Economics of Climate Change in Kerala

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Floods, Fish, and Fiscal Failure: The Economics of Climate Change in Kerala --- Introduction: Paradise Under Siege Nestled between the Western Ghats and the Arabian Sea, Kerala is often romanticized as “God’s Own Country.” With its lush backwaters, tropical climate, and high Human Development Index (HDI), Kerala appears as an economic and ecological success story. Yet beneath this surface lies a growing threat that challenges not just its natural beauty but its entire economic architecture — climate change. Increasingly frequent floods, erratic monsoons, coastal erosion, and declining fish stocks are transforming Kerala's economy in profound and often irreversible ways. This article explores how climate change is already reshaping the economic landscape of the state, who is being affected the most, and what the future might look like if timely interventions are not made. --- The Rising Costs of Nature’s Fury Kerala has faced a series of climate disasters in recent years. The floods...
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The Debt Trap of Development: Analysing Kerala's Fiscal Crisis and Future Pathways

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The Debt Trap of Development: Analysing Kerala's Fiscal Crisis and Future Pathways --- Introduction: The Price of Progress Kerala has long been hailed as a model for inclusive development in India. Its achievements in literacy, public healthcare, and social equality have drawn admiration both nationally and globally. However, beneath this shining surface lies a deepening economic dilemma. The state’s fiscal health is deteriorating rapidly, and signs of financial distress are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Salary delays, heavy borrowings, and soaring public debt paint a picture of a state teetering on the edge of a fiscal crisis. This article examines the roots of Kerala’s financial predicament, the structural flaws of its development model, and the potential remedies that might still be within reach. The Development Paradox Since the 1980s, Kerala has pursued a unique path that prioritised human development over rapid industrialisation. While this strategy yielded impre...
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Climate Change and the Kerala Economy: Navigating Monsoons, Migration, and Markets

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Climate Change and the Kerala Economy: Navigating Monsoons, Migration, and Markets --- Introduction Kerala, often referred to as "God's Own Country," has long enjoyed a unique economic and ecological landscape. However, the state now finds itself on the frontline of climate change. From erratic monsoon patterns to frequent floods, rising sea levels to declining agricultural productivity, the impacts of climate change are no longer distant or theoretical—they are urgent and unfolding. This article delves into how climate change is influencing the Kerala economy across various sectors, the demographic shifts it causes, and the potential avenues to mitigate and adapt through policy, technology, and community resilience. --- 1. Climate Change and Agriculture: A Sector in Peril Agriculture in Kerala, though contributing only around 10% to the state's Gross State Value Added (GSVA), is central to the livelihoods of millions. Climate change, however, is undermining its viabi...
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Revisiting the Kuznets Curve: Relevance and Application in the Modern Economic Era

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Revisiting the Kuznets Curve: Relevance and Application in the Modern Economic Era --- Introduction: The Curve That Promised Progress In the realm of development economics, few concepts have spurred as much debate, hope, and reinterpretation as the Kuznets Curve. Proposed by economist Simon Kuznets in the 1950s, the curve suggested that as a nation industrializes, inequality initially rises and later falls—forming an inverted U-shaped relationship between income inequality and per capita income. This idea promised that inequality was a temporary phase of development, eventually giving way to a more equitable distribution of income. However, as the world grapples with persistent inequality, climate change, urbanization, and complex globalization, the applicability and accuracy of the Kuznets Curve are being increasingly scrutinized. Furthermore, environmentalists have borrowed and modified the concept to develop the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), hypothesizing a similar inverted-U r...
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From Coir to Code: The Economic Transformation of Kerala in the 21st Century

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From Coir to Code: The Economic Transformation of Kerala in the 21st Century Introduction Kerala, nestled between the Western Ghats and the Arabian Sea, is a paradox in the Indian economic landscape. Despite a relatively low industrial base and limited private investment compared to many other Indian states, it consistently ranks high on human development indices. With near-universal literacy, high life expectancy, and low infant mortality, Kerala represents what some economists call the "Kerala Model"—a development approach that prioritises social welfare over raw GDP growth. But how sustainable is this model in a globalising economy? How has Kerala managed its economic transformation in the digital age? And what challenges does it face in the post-pandemic world? This article explores the evolution of Kerala’s economy—from its agrarian and coir-based roots to its emerging knowledge economy—and evaluates the opportunities and structural bottlenecks that lie ahead. --- Part 1...
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The Shadow Economy in India: Uncovering the Unseen Engines of Growth and Inequality

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The Shadow Economy in India: Uncovering the Unseen Engines of Growth and Inequality Introduction The Indian economy is often visualised through skyscrapers, software parks, and booming stock indices. Yet beneath this glittering formal layer lies a far larger, messier, and more complex world—the shadow economy. Also known as the informal, unorganised, or underground economy, it is where most Indians work, earn, and survive. Despite contributing an estimated 40% to India's GDP and employing nearly 90% of its workforce, the shadow economy remains mostly undocumented, unregulated, and untaxed. This article seeks to unveil the hidden mechanics, challenges, and paradoxes of India’s shadow economy. From its roots in colonial land systems to the modern-day gig platforms, from rural construction sites to urban street corners, we explore how informality has become both a lifeline for survival and a barrier to inclusive growth. What is the Shadow Economy? The shadow economy includ...
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Climate Change and the Indian Economy: A Fragile Balance

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Climate Change and the Indian Economy: A Fragile Balance Introduction Climate change has become one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century, with far-reaching implications that transcend geographical, political, and economic boundaries. For a country like India, where more than half the population depends on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, and forestry, the repercussions of a warming planet are particularly severe. India's vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by its large population, widespread poverty, and dependence on natural resources. At the same time, India is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, striving to achieve sustainable development, poverty eradication, and economic modernization. This duality places India at the heart of the global climate debate: How can the country pursue economic growth while safeguarding its environment and adapting to the impacts of climate change? This article delves into the complex...
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